I should have posted this last week before MLB’s wild-card round reduced the number of possible World Series matchups from 36 to 16. The math on that is simple, but let’s look at it anyway.
To be clear, I’m talking about possibilities. not which four teams have the best chance of playing in the fall classic. Using that yardstick, the two pennant winners will likely be the Dodgers or Brewers in the National League, and the Rays or Yankees in the Americal League.
But let’s dream a bit and give every team that made it to the playoffs an equal chance of playing in the World Series even if that team doesn’t have a first-round bye or home-field advantage going for it. After all, every one of the 12 playoff teams knows how to win games and deserves to be in the postseason (except for perhaps the 81–81 Astros). All of them could prevail in a series of short series as dictated by the playoff rules.
With that in mind, there were 36 (yes, 36) possible World Series matchups when the playoffs started. For each playoff team in the National League, there were six possible American League opponents. So, multiply 6 (the total number of NL playoff teams) by 6 (the AL possibilities for each NL team) and you get 36. The odds of any particular matchup occurring weren’t equal, but all were greater than 0.
We could have seen the Red Sox square off against the Phillies or the Astros take on the Cubs. Not likely but possible.
The wild-card round reduced the number of playoff teams to four in each league. Using the methodology outlined earlier, there are 16 possible World Series scenarios left (4 times 4). That should be enough to interest most fans even if some are longshots or your favorite team has already been eliminated.
Among the eight remaining playoff teams, only two haven’t made a World Series appearance since 2000: San Diego and Milwaukee. Unfortunately, only one of the two can advance this year as both are NL teams.
I don’t have a strong preference on which two teams end up meeting in the World Series this year. Just surviving the playoff rounds makes any pennant winner legitimate. However, if possible, give me a longshot matchup with a good story line and spread the wealth around (no Dodgers or Yankees please).
So, how about if the White Sox (losers of 102 games in 2025) take on the Padres (a gift for the new owners) with San Diego earning home-field advantage based on having a better regular season record than Chicago?
Play ball!
