A Convenience Sample

I signed up on the Let’s Go Washington website to be a volunteer to help IP26-645 (see screen capture) get on the ballot in November. IP26-645 is an initiative to the people that would repeal the 9.9 percent tax that was passed by the legislature in March and is to be levied on incomes above $1 million starting in 2028. Although the sample of people I talked while collecting signatures is unscientific, that doesn’t keep me from having some observations about the process.

My first prediction is that IP26-645 will qualify for the ballot. To do so, 324,516 valid signatures need to be submitted to the Secretary of State by July 2. Based on what I have heard from the Let’s Go Washington organizers, I think that will happen. They have signed up thousands of volunteers like me and have held numerous signature-gathering events in public places. The signatures I collected will help even if they are only a tiny fraction of the total needed.

My signature gathering took place in two places: in my Bremerton neighborhood and at Treasure Island. I didn’t go out of my way to get people to sign the initiative. Instead, I primarily talked to neighbors and friends, people I could conveniently reach out to. Thus the title of this post. There’s no way a “convenience sample” like mine could be statistically valid, and I’m not claiming it is. But it’s better than nothing.

Based on my efforts in Bremerton, my prediction is that the initiative will be defeated in November. Several people I talked to said no right off when I asked them if they wanted to sign IP26-645. Others said they needed to read up on the issue (which likely didn’t happen and was the same as a no as none of them contacted me later after doing due diligence). The general response: “rich people need to pay more taxes.” No one seemed concerned that a future legislature might lower the taxable income threshold when the state budget still has shortfalls despite the additional $3+ billion in annual revenue expected from the “millionaires tax.”

It was a different story at Treasure Island. Everyone I talked to signed the initiative except for a few people who aren’t registered Washington voters. In a snowball effect, a few people referred me to friends who also signed it. One man asked me for a blank signature form so he could become a volunteer. Many Treasure Islanders are wealthier than average and own vacation homes there. However, none of my signers are millionaires in terms of annual income, so it wasn’t self-interest that made them sign. Most like me want the voters to decide, instead of our one-party legislature and governor, whether we should make such a monumental change to our state tax system.

Washington voters have said no to a state income tax at least 10 times in the past. If they say no again in November, my prediction is that it will be a close vote. Also, that it will only be a temporary setback for those who favor such a tax.