Will 50 Be the New 40?

Note: This post is about temperature not age.

The historical average daily temperature in Bremerton in February is 42 degrees. Many scientists tell us that our planet is gradually warming. Whether Bremerton’s average daily temperature for February will reach 50 degrees in our lifetimes isn’t known. I don’t have the ability to analyze reams of weather data in an effort to predict the future. It’s easier to relate a temperature anecdote instead.

Let’s start with a couple of observations:

First, based on living in the Pacific Northwest for more than 40 years, it does seem to be getting warmer here both in summer and winter. For example, the summer of 2015 was a scorcher. Last month was one of the warmest Januaries ever. Of the five warmest years on record as recorded at SeaTac Airport, four have occurred since 2013.

Second, scientists and headline writers in the global warming camp vastly outnumber those taking the position that the world’s climate is stable or cooling. Even after allowing for some hyperbole, the real issue is finding effective mitigating steps rather than arguing about whether climate change is real.

With that in mind:

In early February 1978, I had just moved in to the first house I ever bought. An older home on Rocky Point Road, it had a great view of Mud Bay and Dyes Inlet. I loved the place. There was a covered patio just outside the kitchen with an old outdoor thermometer attached to one of the support posts. The thermometer could easily be read from inside the house.

Each morning I checked the temperature while drinking coffee in the kitchen. Every morning the result was the same: 40 degrees. After a week or so, I speculated that the thermometer might be faulty. I had no idea what could be wrong, but this was my first house and I wanted everything to work properly. I decided to spring for a replacement.

I bought a new thermometer and mounted it in the same location as the old one. The next morning while drinking coffee in the kitchen I eagerly checked the temperature. You guessed it. The new thermometer displayed the same temperature as the old one: 40 degrees!

OK, so there was a long string of 40-degree mornings in February 1978. And despite a recent cold snap, the jury is still out on how February 2019 temperatures will stack up next to temperatures from February 41 years ago. Trends and averages are what’s important not data from just two months. But it was cooler back then. I know—two outdoor thermometers told me so.

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