My friend R. B. and I rarely make a bet that isn’t full of loopholes. Even so, the bets always get paid off. This time the bet seems solid. I think I have a winner although I’m depending on the State of Washington to make it so.
The amount wagered is always the same: lunch at the Silver City Brewery in Silverdale. There’s an incentive pay up. The loser—usually me—gets to enjoy Silver City’s great food even while paying double for the privilege.
For this bet we have a witness. K was in the car when we were discussing Initiative 502, which recently passed by a 55 percent yes vote and legalized (or, more correctly, decriminalized) possession of up to an ounce of marijuana by adults starting on December 6, 2012. She’s a Silver City fan and will want to go along just because of their famed panko encrusted fish & chips.
Initiative 502 is more complicated than simply letting adults possess pot. It also gives the Washington Liquor Control Board a year to establish rules governing the growing, distribution, and sale of marijuana. The state is going to be involved in licensing every step along the way.
That’s not all that needs to be done before you can take a puff of legally bought pot. Businesses will have to apply for licenses and then actually grow and process/package the stuff. The product will need to be tested in independent labs with the results reviewed by the state. Retailers will have to figure out how to sell it for a profit without violating the initiative’s rules on advertising.
A portion of the marijuana revenue is earmarked for marijuana education, research on marijuana use, and preventing substance abuse. Spending this money means developing programs to do so.
There’s also the issue of possibly needing to rewrite the DUI laws.
Taking the above into consideration, R. B. bet me that you won’t be able to buy non-medical pot in a state-licensed store a year from now. “It won’t happen by then,” he said. After the bet was made, he offered to extend the time period to January 1, 2014. As with many of our bets, the timeline and terms started changing.
Although the extension would help me, I turned it down.
It’s not that I consider state government to be a well-run machine. Washington routinely overspends on transportation mega projects and cannot agree on how to fully fund basic education, its paramount duty according to our constitution. Despite one-party rule in Olympia, the legislature often needs special sessions to complete its work. The state has difficulty saying no to increased spending.
Nope, I’m betting on the state because there’s BIG MONEY involved. Initiative 502 authorizes the state to collect a hefty 25 percent marijuana excise tax at each level of production and distribution. Revenue from licensing fees and normal business taxes will add to the haul. The state Office of Financial Management estimated possible marijuana-tax revenue in fiscal year 2014 at $249 million. FY 2014 ends just 19 months from now.
The state legislature will enter its 2013 session with a projected budget shortfall of around $1 billion for the next biennium. New revenue sources are hard to come by because of the voter-passed rule mandating a two-thirds majority in both houses to raise taxes. I’m betting the legislature will lean on the Liquor Control Board and other affected state agencies to get marijuana revenue flowing in as soon as possible.
Mud Bay Blog 
Sounds like a sure thing. An interesting side bet would be whether a legal pack of reefers will cost more than a pack of cigarettes. Another would be whether the long-term costs (loss of productivity, medical expenses, and widespread “Wow! How did that happen?”) will eventually overwhelm the short-term tax windfall. ;)
I think they will make it as they have other State/city models to look at… but not Del Mar and Solana Beach which voted against it.
Good choice on your bet. Contrary to some peoples belief, Wa State Government employees are extremely efficient at getting the job done. This law is good for all the people that want to smoke pot, except for those who are still employed and fall under a drug testing program.