Baseball Playoffs: Betting and Pizza

Betting on the 2012 MLB playoffs and pizza aren’t usually linked unless your wager involves a pizza. Mine doesn’t. In fact I can’t even make a bet via my computer because online gambling is illegal in my state. But notice how it appears to be easy to clean up on a World Series bet if you interpret the sample SuperBook betting card too literally (see graphic). I will explain and also try to resolve the pizza dilemma.

Which of the 10 playoff teams will win the World Series? Will it be the hated Yankees, the surprising Washington Nationals, or the Oakland A’s, the hottest team on the planet? Can we count out last year’s World Series champs—the Cardinals? Without manager Tony La Russa (retired) and slugger Albert Pujols (lost via free agency), they are a long shot.

The fact is, I don’t know. It’s hard to pick one team (or two if you make a pick from each league) out of 10. But consider the Yankees and the Nationals as possibilities. Both finished with the best overall records in their leagues, thus earning home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Both are balanced teams with great hitting, pitching, and defense. They obviously know how to win. The Yankees are going after their 28th world championship. The Nats won more games than any team in baseball.

When I noticed that SuperBook listed the odds of winning the World Series as 5 to 1 against both New York and Washington, it seemed like an open invitation* to make some money. Surely, at least one of the two teams will be in the World Series, right? So why not bet on both? This would net a potential payoff of $150 on a $60 bet ($30 on each team) if either team wins it all. That seems like decent odds and a reasonable possibility even though Cincinnati and Oakland fans won’t agree.

I just hope SuperBook’s cashiers are more reliable than their web programmers. Look again at the graphic. It shows a potential win of $300 (not $150) for a Yankees-and-Nationals bet. Obviously that can’t happen. New York and Washington won’t both win the World Series. Otherwise you could maximize your potential winnings by betting on all 10 playoff teams. Given that the odds range from 5-1 for New York and Washington to 15-1 for St. Louis and Baltimore and wagering $30 on each team, your potential win would show as $2535 for a $300 bet. Good luck trying to collect that amount.

On to pizza. For the last few years I have marked the opening of the baseball playoffs with a pizza from Little Caesar’s in Bremerton. It’s close, it’s quick, it’s good. I can drive there, pick up a Hot N Ready pizza, and be home in less than an inning of play.

So what’s different this year? I don’t know what to make of the one-game wildcard playoffs that start (and end) today. Sure it’s the postseason, but to me the games are just elimination games. That is, instead of seeming like a playoff round, they are only there to decide which wildcard team will be in the division series. MLB doesn’t agree with my assessment. Each of the four teams playing today can set a 25-man roster that applies just to this game and not to the division series. So clearly they are a separate round.

I will probably wait and get a pizza tomorrow when the real playoffs start. I wouldn’t want to mark the opening of the division series with pizza left over from the wildcard games.

* For people who don’t live in nanny states or don’t sweat their state laws on online gambling.