Mr. 40

Adam Dunn is a slugger. The big first baseman/designated hitter for the Chicago White Sox has hit more than 370 home runs in his 12-year career. Remarkably, a few years ago he put together what has to be the most consistent totals ever for home runs over a 6-year period by any MLB player who was among the league leaders.

Actually make that the most consistent totals for any offensive category.

Dunn’s career began with the Cincinnati Reds in 2001. From the start he was a home run hitter, finishing his rookie season with 19. In 2004 he hit 46 home runs and tied Albert Pujols for the National League lead. The next season he hit 40 big flies. For the next few years he seemed to be stuck on that total. Not that there’s anything wrong with a 40-homer season.

Dunn matched his 2005 output with 40 home runs in 2006. For 2007 it was the same story—40 homers. Clearly the Reds could count on Dunn for an impressive home run output every year. However, in August of 2008, concerned that he would be eligible for free agency following the season, they traded him to the Arizona Diamondbacks. At the time of the trade Dunn had belted 32 roundtrippers. During the rest of the season he went deep—you guessed it—8 more times putting him at 40 for the fourth straight year.

In 2009 Dunn signed with the Washington Nationals. His output dropped a bit during the two years he played in the nation’s capital. He only managed to hit 38 home runs in 2009 followed by 38 more in 2010.

So over six years Dunn hit 40, 40, 40, 40, 38, and 38 home runs. That’s an average of 39.33 per year with a standard deviation (a measure of how tightly data are grouped around the average) of 1.03. In Dunn’s case the standard deviation would be similar to the illustration at the beginning of the post. His home run stats were as constant as the North Star. About the only way to be more consistent in an offensive category would be to do something 0 times per year (like never steal a base). But Dunn’s output put him near the top every year.

Dunn’s feat is more amazing when you consider that the opposing team’s pitchers are trying their best to prevent home runs.

Of course Dunn isn’t the only player who hit a ton of homers during the period 2005 to 2010. Albert Pujols of the Cardinals hit more (248 to Dunn’s 236). But Albert’s totals (average of 41.33, standard deviation of 6.29) were like a scatter gram compared to Adam’s.

Playing for the Rangers and the Yankees, slugger Alex Rodriguez belted an astounding 277 home runs between 2002 and 2007. However, ARod’s numbers varied from season to season like you would expect (average of 46.17, standard deviation of 9.06).

So I’m not saying Dunn’s home run totals are the most impressive in Major League history for a 6-year period, just the most monotonous.

The slugger has some weaknesses. Dunn strikes out a lot and he doesn’t hit for average. But he does hit homers and drive in runs.

Dunn, 32, signed a multiyear contract with the Chicago White Sox before the 2011 season. Following an operation in April 2011, he struggled that year, hitting only 11 home runs. This year he seems to be healthy again with 7 homers in his first 25 games. So far he’s on track for 40 or more in 2012.