Patriots or Giants?

This year’s Super Bowl quiz consists of one question:

Which team will win Super Bowl XLVI?
A. New England Patriots
B. New York Giants
C. I don’t know
D. It doesn’t matter

Let’s try to find the answer.

For the record, I picked C. and failed the test. Before explaining why, let’s first dispense with D., the cynical choice, but also wrong.

While it’s true that in 10,000 years (or even 100 years), no one will remember whether Tom Brady’s team got revenge for New York’s victory in the 2008 game or whether Eli Manning one-upped his brother Peyton in Super Bowl rings, the outcome of the game does matter, at least in the short term. Which conference supplies the winning team has a strong correlation to stock market performance and the outcome of the presidential race. Whether there’s a link to the number of no-shows at work the next day is still being researched.

Before selecting C., I analyzed my limited knowledge of the two teams. New England reminds me of a cold efficient corporation that moves into a market and uses its superior assets and experience to roll over the competition. New York has shaken off a mid-season losing streak and has come together as a balanced team that keeps making big plays and has destiny watching its back. So, efficient corporation against balanced destiny? Not much help there. Just a recipe for a good game.

Clearly C. is wrong. Saying you don’t know is a good answer but cannot be correct. One team or the other will win. The Super Bowl won’t be canceled or end in a tie. That’s as certain as Bud Light and the E*Trade talking baby being featured in the game’s TV commercials. The correct answer has to be A. or B. The question is which.

To pick between A. and B., I went online and looked at three areas: celebrity predictions, what the bookies are saying, and the opinions of football pundits.

ABC News asked a long list of celebrities to predict the game winner and final score. A solid majority favored the Giants, but the answers were more entertaining than enlightening. For example, Barry Williams, who played Greg Brady on “The Brady Bunch,” predicted that the Patriots will win, saying “As the seventh and youngest Brady, Tom is a classic and a winner.”

By that measure, I should bet on New England. My oldest brother’s first wife’s maiden name is Brady. But on the other side, one of my sister’s grandsons is a dead ringer for Eli Manning. He’s a star athlete too, although his sport is soccer not football.

The odds makers are favoring New England. SuperBook, a web site I always check, lists the Patriots at -3 in points or -135 in a line bet. Other sites have posted similar odds. If you want to bet on New England to win, you have to give up points or accept a return of about $74 for each $100 you wager.

That leaves the football pundits, people who make their living writing about the NFL. The consensus was clearly for New York until today, when SportsIllustrated.com published its analysts’ picks (5 to 1 for the Patriots). Previously the experts at CBS Sports had unanimously favored the Giants (5 to 0), while ESPN writers picked New York by a 6 to 2 margin. Overall, New York has the edge among football pundits.

With Las Vegas saying one thing and football writers saying another, I turned to the oldest way to decide something when the two alternatives seem about evenly matched. The game’s referee will also use this technique, but only to determine which team gets the ball first. That’s right, I flipped a coin, with heads representing the Giants and tails representing the Patriots.

The Giants are going to win. Two out of three, anyone?