Normally the Mud Bay blog refrains from predicting the outcome of sporting events. For starters, it is too easy to be proved wrong. Plus a prediction should be backed by a wager to carry any weight. Online gambling is illegal in Washington. So my prediction is caveated with the subjunctive. This post is about the way I would bet on the Super Bowl if I didn’t live in a nanny state.
The Steelers will prevail. That was my feeling before I turned to the Internet for validation. I don’t know what the score will be or if the game will be a runaway or a nail biter. It’s possible Steeler quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will need to engineer a late scoring drive for Pittsburgh to win. He’s done that before.
Predicting the score seems like a waste of time as I would make a money bet (that is, a bet on which team will win) rather than a line bet (a bet based on the point spread)—if I could bet. Last time I checked, the former is what the teams care about. They aren’t trying to beat a point spread. Superbook.com, the web site where I would demonstrate my commitment (if I could), has the Steelers as +120 underdogs on a money bet ($120 return for a $100 bet).
Thus Vegas favors the Packers. But how about ESPN.com and SI.com? Again, while they aren’t unanimous, most of the 52 football experts there say Green Bay will win. Only 14 are picking Pittsburgh. These are media types who get paid to write about and analyze professional football games. I don’t know what surprised me more—the lopsided consensus or that so many people can make a living that way. How in the world do we have a nine percent unemployment rate?
Since most of the experts aren’t on my side, I turned to the celebrity predictions as another source of information, again courtesy of ESPN and Sports Illustrated. These are people just like me, I thought, except they are famous. Here the game’s outcome has a different forecast. Lots of celebrities are for the Packers, but a majority (31 of 59 at the two web sites) picked the Steelers to win. That made me feel a little better (or would have if I could bet) until I noticed that four other celebrities abstained. That’s right, didn’t or couldn’t answer the question. Perhaps one shouldn’t bet based on celebrity opinions.
So, I was back on my own, trying to justify why I bucked (don’t forget betting caveat) the experts. It’s pretty simple. The Steelers will be able to run the ball. The Packers won’t run the ball as well. The Steeler defense will hold the Packers to fewer points than the Roethlisberger-led Steeler offense will manage to score. I don’t know if there will be key injuries or Packer points on turnovers or special teams. If there are I might be wrong. Plus there’s the Pittsburgh head coach, Mike Tomlin. He’s a winner. He’s a graduate of my alma mater (College of William and Mary). That’s got to be worth something. ;)
Mud Bay Blog 
I went with Dad to Bob’s Barber shop to get a haircut yesterday. In the old days that was were men went to get the local news, gossip and betting favorites. It is no different today although the number of real barber shops has dwindled drastically. At any rate the favorite at Bob’s,despite the experts opinion, is the Steelers.